El Niño promises a quieter hurricane season - Jamaica knows better

Weather agencies on both sides of the Atlantic are pointing to a quieter-than-usual 2026 hurricane season — and a strengthening El Niño is the main reason why. NOAA's seasonal outlook gives a 55% chance of a below-normal Atlantic season, projecting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes between June 1 and November 30. 

For context, an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The science behind the quieter outlook comes down to competing forces. While Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain above normal — ordinarily a recipe for an active season — a developing El Niño is expected to dominate. 

The phenomenon, driven by warming Pacific waters near the Americas, reverses trade winds and triggers powerful high-altitude wind shear across the Caribbean and Atlantic that can physically tear forming storms apart before they intensify.

Caribbean climatologist Cedric Van Meerbeeck, speaking at the 2026 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum in The Bahamas, forecast roughly five Atlantic hurricanes this season, including two major hurricanes — below the historical average. He described the season as likely to be "erratic," with fewer named storms but elevated risks of intense rainfall, flash flooding, prolonged heat waves, and water shortages across the region.

Early-season conditions reinforce the calmer outlook: massive plumes of Saharan dust are currently sweeping across the Atlantic into the Caribbean, suppressing tropical development, while sea surface temperatures across the Main Development Region are running cooler than the record warmth recorded in recent years.

• NOAA projects 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, 1–3 major hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic season • NOAA gives a 55% chance of a below-normal season with 70% confidence in its forecast ranges • Average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes • El Niño drives increased vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and Atlantic, suppressing storm development • Caribbean climatologist Cedric Van Meerbeeck forecasts approximately 5 hurricanes including 2 major hurricanes • Large Saharan dust plumes are currently moving through the Main Development Region, suppressing early-season activity • Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern MDR are cooler than recent record-breaking levels • Van Meerbeeck warned of erratic season risks including flash flooding, heat waves, and water shortages beyond hurricane threats

For Caribbean nations — many of which are still rebuilding from recent storm damage — a below-average forecast offers only partial reassurance. Van Meerbeeck warned that warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures near Jamaica, Cuba, and The Bahamas could still fuel extreme weather, and that El Niño-associated heat poses direct health risks to vulnerable populations, particularly older adults and young children. 

Prolonged heat waves and erratic rainfall also threaten water security across the region, even in a season with fewer named storms.

The 2025 precedent is instructive: Hurricane Melissa alone caused an estimated US$6–7 billion in damage after striking Jamaica as a category 5 storm, with further destruction across Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic — all in a season that fell at the lower end of its forecast range.

"In 2025, the Atlantic season produced four major hurricanes and three category 5 storms — the second-most category 5 storms on record for a single season — despite total named storms falling at the lower end of NOAA's forecast range."

— NOAA / Source reporting on the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Social Conversation: neutral

Posts describe a quiet Atlantic hurricane season start with Saharan dust and model forecasts indicating low activity.

quiet season startSaharan dust suppressionlow activity forecastsregional weather conditions

Voices on X

"🌫️ A massive Saharan dust plume crossed the Atlantic in late May, affecting Cabo Verde and reaching the Caribbean.

🛰️ Based on CAMS data, this visualisation tracks the dust's journey across the ocean, supporting air-quality monitoring.

🔗 https://t.co/BZK2QdeNp9

#ImageOfTheD"

@CopernicusEU · Brussels · 59m ago · 13 engagements · View on X

"6/1 - Atlantic ridge + Colombian Low will keep moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong winds & rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas & fresh to strong winds will expand into Tue. More at https://t.co/26J"

@NHC_TAFB · Miami, FL · 5h ago · 10 engagements · View on X

"🌴 June 1 marks the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

From invests to major hurricanes, we'll be monitoring the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf every step of the way.

🌀 https://t.co/09Cu0qicPw

#HurricaneSeason #AtlanticHurricaneSeason #Tropics #Weather https"

@WatchTropics · 6h ago · View on X

"🌬️ Atlantic Hurricane Season starts TODAY… and it’s completely quiet. As of June 1, 2026, the National Hurricane Center is showing ZERO areas of concern across the entire Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. No tropical development expected for the next 7 days. An unusually "

@NewMediaNe52690 · West Palm Beach, FL · 6h ago · View on X

Based on 20 posts from X · Jun 1, 2026

Below-average forecast, but serious risk remains: NOAA's outlook points to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season driven by El Niño wind shear. However, NOAA Director Ken Graham stresses that uncertainty remains high and that one storm is all it takes to make any season catastrophic — citing historical examples including Hurricane Betsy (1965) and Hurricane Andrew (1992).

Caribbean-specific risks are understated by seasonal totals: Van Meerbeeck warns that the Caribbean faces an 'erratic' season with risks beyond hurricanes — including extreme heat, flash flooding, drought, and water insecurity — all linked to El Niño. He urges governments to reinforce water storage systems and heat preparedness now, while rainfall remains available.

A below-average season can still be a good time to visit — with preparation: The Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association notes that the region spans roughly one million square miles, meaning a hurricane affecting one area leaves most islands unaffected. A below-average season, combined with lower travel costs, makes 2026 a viable year for informed travellers — provided they carry travel insurance and monitor National Hurricane Center updates.

"The Caribbean is likely to experience a strong El Niño pattern, which typically suppresses hurricane activity while increasing heat and weather instability. The upcoming season will be erratic, with fewer storms overall but a heightened risk of intense rainfall events, flash flooding and prolonged heat waves."

— Cedric Van Meerbeeck, Caribbean Climatologist, via 2026 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum